Get your entry points ready first: the Binance Official Site, the Official Binance App, and the iOS installation guide. MVRV-Z Score is the core on-chain valuation metric for reading Bitcoin BTC cycle tops and bottoms, introduced by Awe & Wonder in 2018, calculated as (Market Value − Realized Value) / standard deviation of market value. An MVRV-Z Score below 0 is treated as a cycle bottom signal, while above 7 is treated as a cycle top signal. Across all four historical BTC cycles, MVRV-Z broke above 7 precisely at every cycle top and fell below 0 at every cycle bottom, making it one of the most classic tools among on-chain valuation indicators.
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value, the ratio between a coin's market value and its realized value.
| Concept | Definition | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Market Value | Current price × circulating supply | USD |
| Realized Value | Sum of each BTC's price at the time of its last on-chain transfer | USD |
| MVRV | Market Value / Realized Value | Multiple |
| MVRV-Z Score | (Market Value − Realized Value) / standard deviation of market value | Normalized multiple |
Realized value reflects the "cost basis" of on-chain BTC, while market value reflects the current valuation. The MVRV indicator essentially measures "how much unrealized profit the market is sitting on" — an MVRV above 2 means the whole market is sitting on over 100% unrealized profit, while an MVRV below 1 means the whole market is at an unrealized loss.
The table below shows the correspondence between historical MVRV-Z Score extremes and BTC price from 2014-2026 (data source: Glassnode):
| Date | MVRV-Z Score | BTC price | Subsequent performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-12 (bottom) | -0.5 | $310 | Rose to $440 six months later (+42%) |
| 2017-12 (top) | 11.5 | $19,800 | Fell to $3,200 twelve months later (-84%) |
| 2018-12 (bottom) | -0.4 | $3,200 | Rose to $7,200 twelve months later (+125%) |
| 2021-02 (top) | 8.2 | $58,000 | Fell to $32,000 nine months later (-45%) |
| 2021-11 (top) | 4.8 | $69,000 | Fell to $16,500 twelve months later (-76%) |
| 2022-11 (bottom) | -0.3 | $15,500 | Rose to $73,000 eighteen months later (+371%) |
| 2024-03 (top) | 3.1 | $73,000 | Pulled back to $58,000 six months later (-21%) |
| 2024-12 (top) | 3.5 | $108,000 | Pulled back to $80,000 six months later (-26%) |
| 2026-04 (current) | 2.3 | $65,000 | - |
The historical rule of thumb is that MVRV-Z breaking above 7 is the classic cycle-top signal, and falling below 0 is the classic cycle-bottom signal. But starting in 2024, MVRV-Z's extreme range has visibly narrowed, with tops reaching only 3-3.5, reflecting a weakening of the traditional bull-bear cycle pattern.
As of April 25, 2026, BTC's MVRV-Z Score sits around 2.3, in the historical mid-range, with no clear top or bottom signal.
How to read this print:
First, an MVRV-Z of 2.3 is far below the historical top threshold of 7, meaning BTC's current valuation hasn't reached a top. Second, it's far above the historical bottom threshold of 0, meaning it hasn't reached a bottom either. Third, it sits in a "neutral to moderately bullish" range — the market still has room to run, but caution is warranted.
Supporting context: current realized value is roughly $550 billion, market value is roughly $1.28 trillion, putting overall unrealized profit at 132% — below the 400% unrealized profit level seen at the 2021 bull market top.
MVRV-Z Score shows a clear pattern across each BTC halving cycle. The table below shows key MVRV-Z readings across four halving cycles:
| Halving cycle | MVRV-Z at halving | MVRV-Z at cycle top | Time to top (from halving) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 halving | -0.2 | 12.4 | +12 months |
| 2016 halving | 1.2 | 11.5 | +17 months |
| 2020 halving | 0.5 | 8.2 / 4.8 | +9 / +18 months |
| 2024 halving | 1.8 | 3.5 | +8 months |
MVRV-Z sits in a neutral range (0-2) at every halving, while the cycle-top MVRV-Z has declined with each cycle (12.4 → 11.5 → 8.2 → 3.5), consistent with the diminishing multiple of each cycle's rally. This reflects growing market maturity for BTC, which is lowering the valuation ceiling.
MVRV-Z Score is well suited to judging long-term valuation, while stablecoin supply is well suited to judging short- to mid-term liquidity. Using both together gives the highest win rate.
| MVRV-Z range | Stablecoin supply trend | Suggested strategy |
|---|---|---|
| <0 | Accelerating growth | Go heavy on BTC (highest win-rate bottom) |
| <0 | Stagnant or declining | Cautiously buy the dip |
| 0-2 | Accelerating growth | Mostly hold |
| 0-2 | Stagnant or declining | Neutral, wait and see |
| 2-4 | Accelerating growth | Mostly hold, watch for a top |
| 4-7 | Either | Trim 30-50% |
| >7 | Either | Trim 70%+ |
The current combination — MVRV-Z at 2.3 with stablecoin supply growing 1.8% month-over-month — maps to "mostly hold, watch for a top."
The MVRV indicator was originally designed for BTC but also applies to other major coins, especially those with a long on-chain history.
| Coin | MVRV applicability | Current MVRV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | High | 2.3 | Neutral to moderately bullish |
| Ethereum ETH | High | 1.4 | Neutral |
| Solana SOL | Medium | 1.8 | Neutral |
| BNB | Medium | 2.1 | Neutral to moderately bullish |
| XRP | Low (mostly OTC) | 1.2 | Neutral |
| Dogecoin DOGE | Low (highly speculative) | 1.6 | Neutral |
ETH's current MVRV of 1.4 is on the low side, suggesting ETH's valuation is relatively attractive right now. Memecoins are so speculative that MVRV loses much of its predictive value for them.
MVRV-Z Score isn't a silver bullet — it has three clear limitations:
The first limitation is that the standard deviation changes over time. Because the MVRV-Z formula includes market value's standard deviation, and data was sparser before 2018, the standard deviation was smaller then, letting the Z-Score break above 10 more easily. With more data since 2024, the standard deviation is larger, making it harder for the Z-Score to break above 4-5. That means historical thresholds can't be applied directly.
The second limitation is that institutional flows have diluted its signal. After spot ETFs launched, institutional money now holds BTC through ETF channels, but the "realized value" of ETF holdings is hard to calculate precisely, which affects the indicator's accuracy.
The third limitation is lag. MVRV is a coincident or slightly lagging indicator and can't provide advance warning months ahead of time. In March 2024, BTC's top had an MVRV-Z of just 3.1, far below the historical 7 threshold — in hindsight it was a top, but it couldn't be confirmed at the time.
Glassnode is the mainstream tool for checking BTC's MVRV-Z Score, and its free tier offers basic data access.
| Glassnode tier | Price | Key features |
|---|---|---|
| Free | $0 | Basic on-chain data |
| Advanced | $39/month | 30+ key indicators + alerts |
| Professional | $799/month | All indicators + API |
| Institutional | Custom | Everything + custom indicators |
How to use it: go to glassnode.com → Studio → search "MVRV Z-Score" → view the live chart. The free tier only shows BTC's main indicators; deeper data requires a paid subscription.
Free alternatives: CryptoQuant and IntoTheBlock also offer some MVRV data, and CoinGlass provides basic on-chain data.
Based on historical data and the current market environment, here are practical tips for using MVRV-Z Score:
The first tip is don't use it in isolation. MVRV-Z is a high-quality but single-dimension indicator; combine it with stablecoin supply, ETF flows, funding rates, the fear and greed index, and other data.
The second tip is don't apply historical thresholds blindly. Since 2024, MVRV-Z's extreme range has narrowed noticeably, with the top signal threshold dropping from 7 to 3.5-4. It's better to reference the relative extremes of the most recent 1-2 cycles.
The third tip is to pair it with a long-term dollar-cost-averaging strategy. MVRV-Z has its highest win rate within a DCA framework: double your buy when MVRV-Z is below 0, buy normally between 0-2, halve your buy between 2-4, and pause buying above 4. This strategy backtested at an annualized return of over 60% from 2018-2025.
Q: What is the MVRV-Z Score? A: An on-chain indicator for judging BTC's cycle valuation, calculated as (Market Value − Realized Value) / standard deviation of market value. Below 0 is treated as a cycle bottom, above 7 as a cycle top. Introduced by Awe & Wonder in 2018.
Q: How is Realized Value calculated? A: The sum of each BTC's price at the time of its last on-chain transfer. It reflects the "cost basis" of on-chain BTC and serves as a relatively stable on-chain valuation anchor.
Q: What is MVRV-Z right now? A: As of April 25, 2026, BTC's MVRV-Z is around 2.3, in the historical mid-range. Overall unrealized profit is 132%, neither at a top nor a bottom.
Q: Are the historical MVRV-Z thresholds still valid? A: The thresholds need adjusting. Since 2024, MVRV-Z's extreme range has narrowed, with tops only reaching 3-3.5 (versus the historical threshold of 7). It's better to reference the relative extremes of the most recent 1-2 cycles.
Q: Does MVRV-Z apply to other coins? A: It applies best to BTC and ETH, moderately to SOL and BNB, and poorly to XRP and Memecoins. Memecoins are so speculative that MVRV's predictive value is low for them.
Q: How should MVRV-Z be combined with other indicators? A: A common combination is MVRV-Z plus stablecoin supply, funding rates, and the fear and greed index. MVRV-Z below 0 combined with accelerating stablecoin supply is historically the highest win-rate bottom signal.
Q: Where can I check MVRV-Z data for free? A: Glassnode's free tier offers basic BTC MVRV-Z data, and CryptoQuant and IntoTheBlock also offer some data. Deeper data requires a paid subscription.
Q: What are the limitations of the MVRV-Z indicator? A: Its historical thresholds can't be applied directly because the standard deviation changes over time, institutional flows (via ETFs) make "realized value" hard to calculate precisely, and it's a coincident or slightly lagging indicator that can't warn in advance.
Q: How is MVRV-Z used in a DCA strategy? A: Double your buy when MVRV-Z is below 0, buy normally between 0-2, halve your buy between 2-4, and pause buying above 4. This strategy backtested at an annualized return of over 60% from 2018-2025.
Q: How does the BTC halving cycle line up with MVRV-Z? A: At every halving, MVRV-Z sits in a neutral range (0-2), while the cycle-top MVRV-Z has declined with each cycle (12.4 → 11.5 → 8.2 → 3.5), reflecting growing market maturity that's lowering the valuation ceiling.
Data sources: Glassnode MVRV-Z Score, CoinGecko historical prices, CryptoQuant on-chain data, as of April 25, 2026.